2011 was a year of turmoil and instability - the Arab Spring, Fukushima earthquake, the Eurozone crisis, the death of Kim Jong-il.  I suspect even the best futurologist might only have predicted one of those four.

For those of us in education 2012 promises to be the start of a prolonged period of pain and adjustment. With new types of schools coming on stream such as Studio schools, Free Schools and UTCs the familiar local school landscape will change out of all recognition.

Bedford's 3-tier school system (which is inherently financially inefficient requiring three management teams to every two elsewhere) magnifies these shifts.  It is interesting to watch the different approaches being taken by local schools.  As the environment becomes increasingly competitive it is understandable for our lower schools to look to become two tier primaries, for upper schools to look to become two tier secondaries, and for middle schools to look to become broader in appeal to avoid being squeezed out.

Not all schools can survive this degree of competition so the number of schools will decrease and those that survive are likely to be structured as primary or secondary.  Given this, the decision to create Bedford Academy as an 11-18 school and Bedford Free School as a secondary school appears to have been the right call.

Schools with sixth forms face additional pressure as funding for such students is brought down to the level received by Colleges.

Three strategies seem to be emerging in response.  Some schools will prop up the funding gap by using money from their under 16s; others are seeking to increase sixth form numbers by taking in students with much poorer GCSE scores; others could opt for a very specialised elite offer and draw from a wider catchment.

The first of these is not sustainable and is unfair on pre-16 pupils and parents, if sixth forms are not economic cross-subsidy is never the answer.  The second is in danger of a sixth form becoming more concerned with the survival of a sixth form than whether this is good for pupils.  The third is best for parents and pupils but takes nerve and faith, difficult in times of turmoil.  The winning strategy is hard to predict, and will be probably be hard to watch too.